What the forecast shows
The forecast projects 12 months of business aviation market activity forward, using the complete WINGX global dataset. The KPI cards show the forecasted 12-month total, the actual total from the previous 12 months, and the growth or decline between the two. The chart combines the full WINGX historical record (solid line) with the projection (dashed line).
How it is calculated
WINGX uses Holt-Winters exponential smoothing -- a time-series method designed for data with both a trend and a seasonal pattern. It identifies three things in the market history and projects them forward:
- Level: where activity stands right now, weighted toward recent months
- Trend: whether activity is growing, declining, or flat
- Seasonality: the repeating monthly rhythm that recurs at the same point each year
The model runs on all available WINGX history and the horizon is fixed at 12 months because accuracy degrades meaningfully beyond one full seasonal cycle.
The five activity metrics
Each metric produces its own independent projection. Switching between them reveals different dimensions of the same market.
| Metric | What it measures |
| Flights | Total number of aviation operations recorded by WINGX |
| Flight Hours | Cumulative airborne time across all recorded operations |
| Fuel Uplift (USG) | Total fuel consumed |
| Active Aircraft | Count of distinct tail numbers operating in the period |
| Avg Hours / Tailsign | Average utilisation per aircraft -- reveals intensity of use, not just volume |
Reading the chart and trusting the forecast
Look at the last two or three seasonal cycles in the solid line. If the dashed forecast follows the same rhythm at a similar scale, the model is extending a pattern it has seen repeatedly. Set the evaluation period to All past data to see the full market shape.
Higher confidence | Apply judgment |
| Stable seasonal market -- the dashed line mirrors the last three solid-line cycles. The model is extending a pattern it has seen repeatedly. | Post-disruption recovery -- limited cycles after the event mean the model has less to learn from. Treat the projection as a directional range. |
Why switching metrics matters
Each metric can tell a different story about the same market. The chart below shows Flights rising while Flight Hours decline -- a signal that more aircraft are flying shorter trips. A single metric would not reveal this.
Important: The model does not predict events that are not yet in the data. Regulatory changes, new operator entrants, or macroeconomic shocks will not appear in the projection until they become visible in the WINGX monthly record. When something significant has changed recently, treat the forecast as directional rather than precise.